What bizarre times we live in. There we were merrily tootling along and POW. Another market crash. Or at least that’s what we expect it to be when the property market finally catches its breath. The causes of each of the previous crashes, over the last 50 years anyway, (see here) have each had a common thread… over-exuberance, over-lending, over-building, or just simply over-pricing. This time though, it’s bottom up. It doesn’t seem to be over-anything. It hasn’t been triggered by greedy bankers or greedy governments or greedy investors. It’s personal. But the outcome will be the same. The capital markets will be hit for six and it’s going to be bloody. So strap yourself in folks. It’s going to be a very uncomfortable ride.
The standard variables to recovery are normally... how long, how deep and how costly? But this time, we have an additional human variable... how many? The situation in this case hasn’t been made any easier by global squabbling over the past three years. Established trade deals, peace accords and longstanding organisations such as NATO are all rattling. Saddest of all though, long-term friendships are now also being tested. Therefore, even if the UK can get a podium finish ahead of the rest of the field, the game can’t be over until all the players have beaten this wretched virus into submission. The world is massively inter-dependent. So, if we want to continue enjoying our favourite cups of coffee and tea, or want to replenish our ‘Five a Day’ fruit bowls, we had better hope that South & Latin America, Sub Saharan Africa and India aren’t hit too hard. With ridiculous overcrowding and populations with such deep-rooted health problems, the prognosis for them isn’t great.
To obtain a sense of the climate ahead, we have received the following messages from members of the St Bride’s Global Alliance fleet:
Ian Houston, St Bride’s Managers UK: “More than 50% of the passengers have stowed on board without paying their fares. Altogether that's not that surprising given the circumstances but they shouldn’t forget they’ve also been given all sorts of incentives and hand-outs too. Normally they would be sent down the plank for non-payment but we have received orders that we are not now allowed to send them to their watery grave...until July anyway. I can see it being a very choppy, uncomfortable and bad-tempered ride. And to add to it, the captain and some of his comrades have gone down with cabin fever."
Richard Saunders, St Bride’s Managers US: ‘’It’s getting to be very stormy indeed over here and there is a lot of hot air. We are now wondering if we will have enough rafts and safety equipment, if required. The situation isn’t helped by the fact that the captain seems to have gone AWOL. We desperately need him to get a grip. All the dining rooms and shops on board have shut. They are playing Celine Dion’s My Heart will Go On, the main song from Titanic, on a non-stop loop. Beautiful song… but really?’’
Collin Lau, BEI Capital Hong Kong: ‘’It’s currently very dark and we are being battered by thunderstorms. There are huge waves and the ship is moving very slowly. We are not quite sure where we are going. Everyone is locked down in their cabins waiting for dawn. But, because we have been here before, with SARS, we know the sun will rise again even if it remains hidden behind thick ominous clouds. We don’t expect to find a safe harbour any time soon.’’
Roger Parker, EG Funds, Australia: ‘’It’s very foggy indeed here and our compass isn’t operating properly. The crew is nervous but the captain has issued everyone with a tot of ginger wine and whisky. The retail passengers are leaning over the side. The office passengers are looking very pale but the industrial ones are still playing quoits on deck. As anticipated, the SSO (Ship’s Security officer) is rushing around like crazy demanding non-stop updates. On a different, but no less troubling matter, we have become slightly concerned that some of the ship’s boarding has been ripped up to make a barbie!’’
On the back of last week’s edition of The Weekly, we have been inundated with video clips and memes to cheer us up during these days of self-isolation. Thank you for sending us these - well most of them anyway! A few favourites include “Coronavirus Rhapsody”, “Lock down” and “Liverpool FC Bullseye”, but the new ‘social media darling’ appears to be the return of the ‘Emoji challenge’. Far from easy, and potentially quite frustrating. But should you happen to have a few spare minutes over the coming days or weeks, how about giving some of these a quick go? In case you have no idea what to do, the answer to the first movie is ‘Silence of the Lambs’.