And so here we are, after another tumultuous week. A week that started with glorious Spring sunshine and the first-ever virtual Mother’s Day. That same week is ending with much of the developed world in lock-down and tragically over 30,000 coronavirus-related deaths. In the space of only a month, the UK as changed beyond recognition. On 28 February, London’s Excel Centre hosted The Baby Show. Today it is a 4,000-bed hospital. On 11 March, Liverpool played Atlético Madrid in the Champions League at Anfield. Today, the closest thing to that will be a father versus son match in the back garden. Speaking on the BBC’s The World at One, historian Lord Peter Hennessy predicted that, in the future, post-war Britain will be demarcated “BC and AC - before corona and after corona”. Whilst none of us can be sure quite what the final impact will be, he probably isn’t far off it.
The Weekly was launched in January 2014 to provide a light-hearted digest of what caught our eye during the previous seven days. That’s simply unachievable this week, a week that will live long in the memory of us all. 'Memorable' doesn’t quite feel the appropriate word, but it’s hard to think of a better one.
Not only have we seen the introduction of the most draconian restrictions on individual liberty the UK has ever seen, but the UK Government has now put in place an unprecedented package of direct tax and spending measures. The Bank of England took a break this week and left policy unchanged, but it has already cut interest rates to 0.10%, pledged to buy £200bn of assets and established new facilities to provide cheap funding to banks and loans directly to businesses. The current fiscal stimulus is two-and-a-half times the size of that seen in the financial crisis. The unprecedented nature of the economic shock means the size of the impact is extremely hard to estimate. Capital Economics have pencilled in a 15% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. That would eclipse the peak-to-trough fall in GDP in both the Global Financial Crisis (6% over five quarters) and the Great Depression (7% over ten quarters).
The world of sport saw the postponement this week of the Olympics until next summer at the latest, the first deferment or cancellation since World War II. Elsewhere, the pandemic has disrupted sport across the globe so much that broadcasters have been left scratching their heads wondering how they can fill their empty schedules. Yesterday, for example, Eurosport transported viewers back to Team GB’s best day at the Olympics in 104 years as they revisited Super Saturday from London 2012. They have gone big very early, although it certainly begs the question what they will be showing in a few months’ time! Crufts from 1976?
The property industry has not been immune this week either. Far from it. REIT have continued to take a pounding as the crisis has escalated, with share prices plummeting by around 37% on average in the past month. Intu has seen the biggest fall, a whopping 96%. Wednesday saw the March Quarter Day come and go. The true position is still emerging, but on the due date many landlords were around 50% down on their normal rent receipts. The Government banned the eviction of commercial property tenants should they miss a payment in the next three months. MIPIM was postponed… again! The construction industry is grinding to a halt and the enormous fall-out on occupational demand across all sectors is hard to fathom.
The truth is that positivity is hard to come by. We are in the throes of a global health crisis that is likely to last months rather than weeks. However, there are some reasons to be cheerful. British Summer Time began today. China is relaxing restrictions and Wuhan’s lock-down has just been lifted. Parents have the chance to spend quality time with their children, even if it means having to reacquaint themselves with how to multiply fractions or what causes longshore drift. We can try and grow a beard without too much abuse. The Test is available to watch on Amazon Prime. Healthcare workers around the world are being, quite rightly, applauded. Scientific progress to find a vaccine is continuing, whilst community spirit and giant acts of kindness are flourishing. Oh, and there has been a surge of video clips and memes popping up all over the internet to bring a glimmer of joy into our lives at this extremely disturbing time. A few of The Weekly’s favourites can be found below: