Tim Burke-Murphy

Project London

  • Bull & Bear discuss Sadiq Khan's recent appearance at MIPIM 2025 where he showcased his London Investment Prospectus, entitled Opportunity London.

  • Always the sceptic, Bear is convinced that the mayor only jetted into Cannes for a quick photo opportunity!

  • But once they dig into the prospectus in detail, Bull & Bear are impressed by the scale and ambition of the investment opportunities on offer, with many focused around London's strategic transport hubs including Liverpool Street, Victoria, Waterloo and Euston.

  • Above all, Opportunity London demonstrates that the mayor, together with all tiers of London's government, are working hand-in-glove with the property industry to deliver transformational change.  And that should ensure that London continues to attract the lion's share of cross-border capital to make these ambitious redevelopment schemes a reality.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.  

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New Dawn?

  • Whilst Bear worries about the downgrade to the UK's growth forecasts and what-on-earth President Trump is going to do next, Bull is focused on the dawn of a new cycle for the UK property market. 

  • Armed with the latest MSCI Quarterly Index results, Bull is convinced that a combination of falling interest rates, low entry prices, good availability of debt, a limited development pipeline, and some positive investor sentiment, will deliver healthy returns.

  • Is it time for investors to spring into action or hit the snooze button again for 2025?

  • Enjoy your Sunday.  

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New Year's Resolutions

  • Bull attempts to persuade Bear to be more optimistic (and less Bearish) in 2025.

  • But with the pound plummeting to its lowest level since 2023 last week and UK Government borrowing costs hitting their highest level for 16 years, Bear is concerned about the rather wintery economic backdrop.

  • Bull, however, is keen to highlight the strength of the UK property market recovery, with December performance turning out much better than expected.  Bear's pessimistic view begins to thaw....

  • Wrap up warm!  And enjoy your Sunday.  

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The Search for Scientific Talent

  • Inspired by a list of mankind's greatest scientific discoveries, Bull & Bear discuss the established and emerging Life Science markets around the world.

  • The pair discover that the US clusters of Boston (1) and San Francisco (2) lead the way, with the UK's Golden Triangle (3) the highest ranked Life Sciences hotspot in Europe. 

  • The strength of these markets depends on a host of factors, like access to VC funding and R&D, business environment and property costs.  But, wherever you are in the world, the key ingredient is access to deep pools of scientific talent. 

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The Halloween Budget

  • After a glitzy reception gala to celebrate the inaugural International Investment summit, Bull is buoyed by the Government's promise to "invest, invest, invest".  

  • But with the spectre of the Autumn Budget looming, Bear is concerned that an unprecedented raft of damaging tax rises will turn the Government's promise into empty rhetoric. 

  • The pair will be return on 03 November - after a short half-term break - to pick over the bones of the Budget and evaluate what it means for the UK property market.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.  

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The Long Term View

  • After the US Federal Reserve moved to cut interest rates by 50 bps last week, Bull is struggling to understand why the Bank of England remains so cautious.  

  • Even Bear is convinced that a base rate cut to 4.75% in November is "nailed on" and the pair turn their attention to what this means for long-income property investments.

  • They conclude that the specialist sectors in the market offer opportunities to secure long-income investments with strong capital and rental growth prospects.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.  

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Great Expectations

  • As the nation holds its breath ahead of tonight's Euro 2024 final in Berlin, Bull & Bear distract themselves by discussing the likely impact of the Labour Administration on the UK housing market. 

  • The new Government has wasted no time in setting out ambitious policies to deliver much-needed housing by relaxing rules around the development of the Green Belt and building new towns.

  • However, the pair conclude that Labour are likely to run into many of the same obstacles as the Tories did in their stated bid to deliver a generational increase in housing supply.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.  And come on England!

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The Productivity Puzzle

  • Bull & Bear are focused on two important puzzles.

  • Why are Gareth Southgate's England team struggling to find any semblance of form in the Group stages of Euro 2024?

  • And why has the UK's productivity stagnated so sharply since the Global Financial Crisis?

  • Bull believes Anthony Gordon holds the key for the England team, whilst Bear turns to an in-depth report by Bidwells ('The Productivity Engine') to understand why a lack of investment is holding back the UK.

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Future Gazing

  • After attending a talk on the future of real estate investment management, Bull is in a reflective mood.

  • The pair conclude that the need for active asset management has never been so acute, especially as the real estate landscape is breaking up into different asset types, which require specialist operators.

  • However, the inexorable trend towards investment in operational (management-intensive) sectors will also force investment managers to adopt new models to harness operator expertise and deliver an enhanced level of customer service.

  • Enjoy your Bank Holiday Sunday.

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The Ripple Effect

  • With tensions in the Middle East continuing to escalate, Bear is concerned that another regional conflict could have a negative impact on the UK economy, and the green shoots of recovery in the property market.

  • Bull agrees that the geo-political risks to the economy are increasing, but believes that the UK economic data still offers enough encouragement for the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates later this year.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Finding Purpose

  • With secondary office prices seemingly in freefall, Bull is excited by Mr Gove's ambition to deliver more homes by repurposing obsolete office buildings through Permitted Development Rights (PDRs).

  • Never one to rush into things, Bear is on hand to offer a few words of caution, raising concerns that relaxing the PDR restrictions will only lead to the delivery of sub-standard homes in the wrong places.

  • The key, as always, is striking the right balance.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Quizzical Insights

  • After reviewing Bull's rather disappointing showing in the annual Boost Charitable Trust pub quiz, Bull & Bear turn to the performance of the UK property market and, of course, the England rugby team.

  • They discover that the relative performance of different property funds in 2023 was, to a large extent, determined by their weighting to specific asset classes.  And that there is no stopping Scotland winger, Duhan van der Merwe, when he's running at full tilt.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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The Farming Edition

  • Bull pulls on his green wellies and ventures into the countryside to explore the merits of investing into farmland in the UK.

  • Bear, whose knowledge of farming is based almost entirely on 10 episodes of Clarkson's Farm, needs some convincing.

  • What they discover, however, is that farms can provide a safe haven for capital, delivering good, long term performance underpinned by the need for food security and the demands of a growing (and ever greedier) population. 

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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