TransPennine Offices

• Bear has been up north this week, crossing the Pennines from Leeds to Manchester.

• Whilst general sentiment in the regions seemed pretty positive, he's come home feeling a little uneasy about their office markets. 

• Bear has some reservations about the 'fully-fitted' office model and worries the money landlords have to pour into Grade A-minus and Grade B offices could deter investors going forward.

• Bull is quick to remind Bear that occupational sentiment is improving, and whilst there's no doubt many offices will require significant capital expenditure, the soft yields on regional offices represent excellent value for money and it's already starting to entice investors.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Treading Water?

• Ahead of The Chancellor's Spring Statement on Wednesday, Bull and Bear meet up to discuss the state of the UK house-building sector.

• Although the UK housing market has seen a robust start to 2025 (and is particularly busy at present as buyers rush to complete deals before a stamp duty saving runs out at the end of the month), the indicators of housebuilding are rather worrying.

• Residential house building decreased for a fifth month in a row in February, despite the Government reiterating that it will meet its house-building target of 1.5 million new homes in England by 2029.

• Most of England’s new homes are built by a small number of large firms. Bull and Bear finish by discussing why SME house builders now only develop 10% of new homes, compared to 39% in 1988.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Project London

• Bull & Bear discuss Sadiq Khan's recent appearance at MIPIM 2025 where he showcased his London Investment Prospectus, entitled Opportunity London.

• Always the sceptic, Bear is convinced that the mayor only jetted into Cannes for a quick photo opportunity!

• But once they dig into the prospectus in detail, Bull & Bear are impressed by the scale and ambition of the investment opportunities on offer, with many focused around London's strategic transport hubs including Liverpool Street, Victoria, Waterloo and Euston.

• Above all, Opportunity London demonstrates that the mayor, together with all tiers of London's government, are working hand-in-glove with the property industry to deliver transformational change.  And that should ensure that London continues to attract the lion's share of cross-border capital to make these ambitious redevelopment schemes a reality.

• Enjoy your Sunday.  

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Hurricane Donald

• Over the winter, the UK has suffered five storms … Ashley, Bert, Conall, Darrah and Eowyn. Protocol dictates that the name of the next storm should start with an ‘F’. Except that it won’t.

• To heck with protocols. An executive order has decreed that the next one will go back one letter to ‘D’. As in Donald.

• Brace yourself. In the words of Ronald Reagan … ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet’.

• Looking at the tremendous amount of hot air and gas that is building up on the east coast of America, this one is going to be a complete s***-storm.

• Bull and Bear discuss its worrying implications for investment.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Smile for the Square Mile

• Bull & Bear are discussing a market that's rather close to home this week - City of London offices.

• Bull is thrilled to hear that prime rents continue to break records as the occupational market seems increasingly willing to pay top dollar for Grade A stock.

• Bear is quick to remind Bull that there is more to the market than just the top end, and whilst investors/developers are desperate to turn secondary stock into prime Grade A offices, getting the numbers to stack up isn't so easy.

• Regardless, with a fair economic wind, opportunity awaits for those brave enough to take the leap.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Prime Residential

• Bull and Bear have not escaped for half-term. The closest they have got to going away is reading Savills’ latest World Cities Prime Residential Research Paper. 

• Despite all the current global political and economic uncertainty, prime global residential property has remained pretty resilient, with average capital value growth of 2.20% in 2024.

• Madrid and Barcelona were the two cities which saw the strongest capital value growth in 2024. However, London saw prime Central London residential values fall.

• In the UK, the expectation is that the abolition of ‘non-doms’ status and the additional 2% stamp duty surcharge will result in further downward pressure on prices in the short term. Savills are expecting prime residential capital values in London to fall a further 4% in 2025.

• Bull and Bear been given next Sunday off, so will be back in a fortnight’s time (2 March).

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

New Dawn?

• Whilst Bear worries about the downgrade to the UK's growth forecasts and what-on-earth President Trump is going to do next, Bull is focused on the dawn of a new cycle for the UK property market. 

• Armed with the latest MSCI Quarterly Index results, Bull is convinced that a combination of falling interest rates, low entry prices, good availability of debt, a limited development pipeline, and some positive investor sentiment, will deliver healthy returns.

• Is it time for investors to spring into action or hit the snooze button again for 2025?

• Enjoy your Sunday.  

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Flying High?

• Bull is uncharacteristically bearish about almost everything, although his ears prick up when he learns that the UK has out-performed the French. And he is hoping this good fortune will follow through onto the rugby pitch on Saturday.

• Bear is bullish about almost everything, especially the Government’s support for the expansion of London’s five airports and the re-ignition of growth plans for the Oxford-Cambridge Knowledge Arc.

• Manchester also gets a ‘shout-out’. But above all, both of them are hoping that the Bank of England will play ball on Thursday and cut interest rates.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Hybrid Hustle

• Working from home has again been hot in the press this week, so Bull & Bear plan to have another good moan about it.

• Knowing this, Bear Cub decides to join the conversation and offer a more balanced view on the subject.

• Cub convinces Bull & Bear that whether they like it or not, hybrid policies - where employees work 2 or 3 days a week in the office - are here to stay.

• The three protagonists go on to discuss how UK real estate can best place itself to accommodate this trend for the long-term.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

January Blues

• Bear has a got a terrible case of the January Blues.

• Aside from his favourite football team's woeful run of form, Bear is fed up with the weather and the raft of negative news stories regarding the UK economy. He is also concerned that the recent bond yield spike will harm the relative attractiveness of property as as asset class. 

• Bull tries to reassure him that 2025 will be a year of opportunity for property investors (especially in the value-add space).

• Bull also highlights the popularity and success of the Build to Rent (BTR) sector as an area for optimism. Investment in BTR surpassed £5 billion for the first time in 2024, the fifth consecutive record for investment numbers.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

New Year's Resolutions

• Bull attempts to persuade Bear to be more optimistic (and less Bearish) in 2025.

• But with the pound plummeting to its lowest level since 2023 last week and UK Government borrowing costs hitting their highest level for 16 years, Bear is concerned about the rather wintery economic backdrop.

• Bull, however, is keen to highlight the strength of the UK property market recovery, with December performance turning out much better than expected.  Bear's pessimistic view begins to thaw....

• Wrap up warm!  And enjoy your Sunday.  

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

10.50% - Stick or Twist?

• Bull is due to have his annual performance review and is concerned that he may have overstepped the mark on occasions during the year. Bear certainly thinks so.

• On reflection though, Bull stands his ground and re-asserts his view that now is a great buying opportunity for cash buyers.

• Bear is anxious to trim back their total return forecast for 2025, but Bull sticks to his guns with an aggressive …10.50% on the back of a decent starting income return, some respectable rental growth and a little bit of yield compression.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Black Friday

• Bear has a bone to pick with 'Black Friday'. He believes it's far too long, the deals on offer aren't truly 'bargains' and many retailers are hurting themselves by partaking.

• Bear's moaning prompts the two protagonists to look at the state of the UK's retail sector. They find that despite a number of recent setbacks, including the cost-of-living crisis and Labour's Autumn Budget, the occupational market seems in reasonable health.

• Investment in High Street retail hasn't taken the world by storm, but improved consumer sentiment, rental growth, hardening yields and positive Total Returns all paint a more merry picture for the sector.

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat

Mega-Funds

• Aside from discussing the start of Advent, Bull and Bear assess the Chancellor’s Mansion House speech on 14 November and the implications of the biggest pension reform in decades for the UK property industry. 

• The Government wants to merge the UK’s 86 council pension schemes into a handful of “pension mega-funds”. It is hoped the changes will lead to billions of pounds being invested in the UK in areas such as energy infrastructure, tech start-ups and public services.

• The proposals also indicate there will be significantly greater participation in impact funds and local investment strategies

  Click Here to Follow Their Chat