Providing Perspective

• Bear has brought a special guest with him this week ... his eldest cub.

• Cub is a little concerned about the trajectory of the UK property market after a difficult two years and Bull and Bear are here to provide some perspective.

• Bull, ever the optimist, has seen it all before and predicts a sharp bounce-back in the market as opportunistic investors flood into the market once interest rates come down a bit further.

• Bear believes we'll see a more modest recovery as UK institutions - still wounded by the past 24 months - take a little longer to return to the market.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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Charities - Challenging Times

• Bull and Bear were at the St Bride’s Managers vs Boost Charitable Trust Annual Golf Day on Thursday and are now discussing the challenges ahead for the charity sector.

• Whilst overall UK donations were up last year, fewer people appear to be giving. And with less volunteering too, the UK has crashed from third place four years’ ago in the World Giving Index to its lowest-ever spot … twenty-second.

• They discover that there are now 11,200 charity shops on the UK high streets … desperately trying to bolster their income.

• Yet, like everyone else, charities and foundations have seen a sharp fall in the capital value of their investments.

• One of the saving graces for them though has been the reliability of the distributions received from their property fund investments.

• But above all, everyone in the sector will be hoping that the Chancellor leaves the charities’ various property tax reliefs in place on 30 October.  

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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Sporting Property

• After a soggy trip to the Home of Cricket on Friday, Bull and Bear meet up to discuss how sports stadiums are becoming a vital piece of a city’s social and cultural infrastructure. 

• No longer are stadiums being designed and operated as a single-use asset that sits empty or underutilised for large parts of the week. They have to be integrated placemaking anchors which activate and enliven their local neighbourhoods 365 days of the year. 

• Bull and Bear assess what the likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Manchester United have done (and are planning) and whether properties near sports stadiums outperform.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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The Long Term View

• After the US Federal Reserve moved to cut interest rates by 50 bps last week, Bull is struggling to understand why the Bank of England remains so cautious.  

• Even Bear is convinced that a base rate cut to 4.75% in November is "nailed on" and the pair turn their attention to what this means for long-income property investments.

• They conclude that the specialist sectors in the market offer opportunities to secure long-income investments with strong capital and rental growth prospects.

• Enjoy your Sunday.  

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Capitalising on Anxiety

• Bear is feeling down about the UK's £22bn fiscal gap and the widely anticipated prospect of the Government filling it by raising Capital Gains Tax in the Autumn Budget.

• With many private property owners anxious to sell before the tax rise is implemented, Bull sees an opportunity for investors who are ready to move quickly.

• As a flurry of opportunities come to market with potential discounts on offer in the interest in selling quickly, investors may be able to pick up some good deals at great prices, reigniting the market.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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London - Paris. Entente Cordiale?

• Bull has returned from four days at the Paralympic Games in Paris and is full of ‘joie de vivre’.

• He compares the warm, welcoming and uplifting spirit in the City of Light and Love with the current rather despondent mood in London.

• After a childish game of ‘one-upmanship’ as to which is the better sports city/country, our two protagonists settle down to compare the property fundamentals of each.

• After a close-run tie-breaker, London just pips Paris to the post. (Well, there’s a surprise!)

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Summer Recess with Optimism

• Ahead of their forthcoming summer recess, Bull and Bear meet up to put the world to right and conclude there are reasons to be optimistic.

• There are signs that market conditions are improving. Property capital values are showing signs of stabilisation. Positive total returns have reappeared at the All-Property level. Results from the CBRE European Lender Intentions Survey also show that lenders expect to deploy more capital later this year.

• Bull and Bear's hope (and expectation) is that when everyone returns to their desks in September, there should be far greater activity than we’ve seen for some time.

• Bull and Bear will return on 1 September 2024. Enjoy your Summer!

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All Leeds, Aren't We?

• Bull has been in Yorkshire this week, and has returned with the exciting news of plans to build a Mass Transit System (MTS), connecting Leeds with its neighbouring towns.

• He is quick to remind Bear of the significant impact a MTS can have on a region, citing London's Midtown (Crossrail) and Manchester (Tram System) as case studies.

• With strong underlying economic and property fundamentals already in place across Leeds and Yorkshire, Bull is adamant that NOW is the time to invest if you want to reap the rewards of the MTS.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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Great Expectations

• As the nation holds its breath ahead of tonight's Euro 2024 final in Berlin, Bull & Bear distract themselves by discussing the likely impact of the Labour Administration on the UK housing market. 

• The new Government has wasted no time in setting out ambitious policies to deliver much-needed housing by relaxing rules around the development of the Green Belt and building new towns.

• However, the pair conclude that Labour are likely to run into many of the same obstacles as the Tories did in their stated bid to deliver a generational increase in housing supply.

• Enjoy your Sunday.  And come on England!

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Backing Team GB

• Over the past 25 years, UK pension funds have radically re-shaped their investment portfolios. Over 50% is now invested in bonds.

• Both the private equity and property markets are constipated, and ongoing illiquidity is beginning to cause some snags in funding new initiatives.

• Amongst a number of potential ‘wow-ing’ ideas, Bull optimistically suggests a switch in allocations out bonds to help get the sectors moving again.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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Politics and Property Performance

• After a tough week of TV watching, including the England football team and the final Sunak vs Starmer election debate, Bull and Bear meet up to discuss the property-related policies included in the manifestos of the main political parties. 

• Consistent themes addressed by all the parties include unlocking the housing market (and addressing the need to increase the supply of housing), planning reform and increasing the rate of economic growth in the UK.

• It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that the degree to which the various parties have made commitments to increase housing delivery differs significantly!

• Research suggests, however, that regardless of which political party ends up in power, there isn’t any real difference to the overall performance of the UK real estate market.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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The Productivity Puzzle

• Bull & Bear are focused on two important puzzles.

• Why are Gareth Southgate's England team struggling to find any semblance of form in the Group stages of Euro 2024?

• And why has the UK's productivity stagnated so sharply since the Global Financial Crisis?

• Bull believes Anthony Gordon holds the key for the England team, whilst Bear turns to an in-depth report by Bidwells ('The Productivity Engine') to understand why a lack of investment is holding back the UK.

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Supporting Scotland?

• Despite Scotland's disappointing performance at the Euro 2024 opener on Friday night, Bull has been channelling his inner-Scot this weekend.

• Bear questions his somewhat dubious ancient connections, but asks for a run-down on the property market.

• Bull reveals that with consistent rental growth across the board, yields sharpening in some sectors, and the prospect of Scottish Independence looking increasingly unlikely, now could be a very good time to invest in Edinburgh. 

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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Resilience and Determination

• Bull has been invited to be a panellist at the upcoming Annual AREF conference and needs some ammunition. His topic is the resilience of property and property funds.

• Both he and Bear agree that, over the past fifty years, the sector has successfully pivoted in line with changing socio-economic demands and are generally happy with the resilience shown by the sector.

• But Bear warns that the future is less straightforward, not least as the asset classes which are likely to be in most demand (healthcare, retirement living etc) are currently very heavily influenced by government policy.

• Enjoy your Sunday.

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