Ian Houston
Singapore Spring
Singapore Spring

World Cities

  • For the first time since 2012 when the St Bride's Annual World Cities Index was launched, London has lost its crown and slipped into second place.

  • The Big Apple has claimed top spot this year, and Singapore has picked up the bronze medal. Copenhagen are new entrants into the top twenty.

  • Bull and Bear are comforted, but rather surprised, that the UK has somehow retained its silver medal position in the Environmentally-Friendly Country Index.

  • But are miserable, unhappy and gloomy that we have only just scraped into the top twenty happiest countries. Boohoo!

  • Have a happy Sunday.

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A Race for London

  • As Bull limbers up to participate in today's London Landmarks Half Marathon wearing a costume of 10 Downing Street dressed as Boris Johnson (yes, you read that correctly!), Bull and Bear discuss the current health of the London office market.

  • JLL reported that there was a rebound in office leasing activity in Q4 2023 with 3.4 million sq. ft. transacted, showing a significant 55% improvement compared to Q3 and marking the highest Q4 volumes since 2010.

  • Prime office rents increased across all Central London main markets in Q4 2023, with the prime West End office rent increasing to £140 per sq. ft.

  • Only £6.5bn of Central London office investments were traded last year but there are indications that private equity firms are now returning to the market. Their return usually signals that pricing is bottoming out and that deal volumes will pick up.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Finding Purpose

  • With secondary office prices seemingly in freefall, Bull is excited by Mr Gove's ambition to deliver more homes by repurposing obsolete office buildings through Permitted Development Rights (PDRs).

  • Never one to rush into things, Bear is on hand to offer a few words of caution, raising concerns that relaxing the PDR restrictions will only lead to the delivery of sub-standard homes in the wrong places.

  • The key, as always, is striking the right balance.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Fortune Favours the Brave

  • Bear is in a contemplative mood.

  • Bull is cock-a-hoop that his two predictions last Sunday for the Cheltenham festival came good. He is now officially calling the 'turn-around in the market' and reckons that the current bad-mouthing of offices has gone too far.

  • They both support the IPF Consensus Forecast of 7.2% for 2024 although they expect most of the action will be back-ended.

  • Meanwhile, they expect the listed sector will deliver some handsome returns.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Property, Politics and Punting

  • Bull and Bear meet up to discuss Wednesday's Spring Budget and, in particular, the implications for the UK property market. 

  • The most relevant property announcements focused on changes to property capital gains tax, multiple dwellings relief, non-domicile tax reform, devolution of power and levelling up the economy via major developments, such as a commitment to a life sciences and homes scheme in Canary Wharf.

  • The Government also announced that it will begin legislating for the Reserved Investor Fund (RIF).

  • Bull also looks forward to his trip to the Cheltenham Festival next week and shares a couple of tips for the Weekly readership.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Raving About Retail Warehousing

  • Bear is loving the new Starbucks drive-thru that’s opened up near his house, prompting the two protagonists to look into the rapid growth of the UK's drive-thru property market in recent years.

  • Bull then wonders whether this growth has been reciprocated across the UK’s wider retail warehouse sector.

  • With exceptionally low vacancy rates across the board, along with well-established retailers taking long leases and prime yields running at 6.00%, neither Bull, nor Bear, can understand why investors are waiting on the sidelines!

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Quizzical Insights

  • After reviewing Bull's rather disappointing showing in the annual Boost Charitable Trust pub quiz, Bull & Bear turn to the performance of the UK property market and, of course, the England rugby team.

  • They discover that the relative performance of different property funds in 2023 was, to a large extent, determined by their weighting to specific asset classes.  And that there is no stopping Scotland winger, Duhan van der Merwe, when he's running at full tilt.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Misunderstandings and Unexpected Consequences

  • Welcome to this school half-term Bull and Bear parody issue. Any resemblances to Messrs Trump, Xi Jinping and Putin are entirely coincidental.

  • Both Bull and Bear have been on the conference trail recently, with very mixed results.

  • Bull was keen to update his knowledge on AI and was staggered by the seminar’s content.

  • Bear had just returned from the Annual Bears R Us Global Convention. With the UK taking something of a beating, he couldn’t resist predicting that we are set to ‘knock the socks off’ other global markets.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Headaches for Housebuilders

  • On the back of the news this week that Barratt has agreed to buy Redrow for £2.5bn, Bull and Bear discuss the growing consolidation of the UK house building sector and explore the challenges faced by house builders at the other end of the size spectrum.

  • The time taken to achieve an outline permission has increased fourfold since the early 1990s, whilst the associated costs of obtaining a planning consent have risen too. The politicisation, and associated risk associated with achieving planning permissions has also increased, exacerbated by a lack of public sector capacity. The result of all this for SME house builders is draining.

  • In 1988, SME builders built 40% of all homes. In 2020, it was just 10%. The loss of SMEs is affecting the UK's ability to meet its house building targets.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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Bear's 2023 Investment Breakdown

  • Bull is in good spirits this morning but as usual, Bear is on hand to bring him back down to earth.

  • Bear has spent the week reading reports on the finalised figures for 2023’s total investment volumes and as expected, it makes for some sobering reading.

  • He breaks down his findings for Bull, detailing both where the limited investment went, and where the capital came from.

  • Bull, undeterred by Bear’s pessimism, manages to find some positive take-aways ahead of 2024. Of course he did!

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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2024 - Searching for Positivity

  • Relieved to say goodbye to 2023, Bull and Bear reflect on the past twelve months in the hope of finding some positive signs for the UK property industry in 2024.

  • Whilst commercial property investment volumes plummeted in 2023 to hit a decade low, All Property Total Returns were positive at 1.70% for the year. 

  • Commercial property rental values also increased by 3.60% over the last twelve months.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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'V' or 'U'? That is the Question

  • It’s the final edition of Bull & Bear before Christmas and both our protagonists are in disagreement over how they expect the market is going to recover in the coming few years.

  • Bull, ever the optimist, believes the market will make a sharp ‘V’- shaped recovery and Capital Growth will begin improving next year.

  • Bear tempers his expectations, citing a prolonged period of high interest rates keeping Capital Growth stagnant and suggests the market will look more like a dragged out ‘U’.

  • Bear goes on to make the case that investors need to prioritise their Income Return in order to maximise value through this period of low Capital Growth.

  • The duo agree to settle on a subdued 2024 but expect the market to begin improving in 2025-26.

  • Enjoy your Sunday.

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