#400 | The Weekly Quiz | ITEM Club Forecasting | Lotto Jackpots | Gabba Despair

On 12 April 2004, West Indies great, Brian Lara, set the highest score ever in Test cricket, hitting 400 not out in the fourth and final Test against England in Antigua. Today, Sunday 5th December 2021, The Weekly reaches the same milestone – its 400th Edition. It’s hard to believe that we have already made it through almost eight years. Thank you for your continued support! To mark this ‘momentous’ milestone, The Weekly has decided to delve into its archives and revisit some of the news stories covered in past editions, namely editions #1, #40, #100, #200 and #300… and then converting them into quiz questions relating to the current day. That means we can assure you there will be no discussion of Omicron in this week’s edition!

Questions

1. The 1st edition of The Weekly released on 26th January 2014 reported that the IMF and the EY ITEM Club had both just upgraded their forecasts for 2014 UK GDP growth to 2.4% and 2.7% respectively. Both fell a little short. An unexpected increase (0.6%) in the final quarter meant growth for 2014 was 2.8%, marking the highest pace of annual growth since 2005. Last week, the EY ITEM Club announced that they now expect UK GDP to grow by 6.9% in 2021, down from a previously forecast 7.6% in the summer. If correct, this would be the strongest growth since 1941... but it follows, of course, a pandemic-hit 2020 when GDP shrank by nearly 10%. The latest ONS figures (to the end of September) show the UK's economic recovery to have been slower than that of other developed nations, with the US now 1.4% above its pre-pandemic peak and the eurozone 0.5% below. So here is the question. Based on September's numbers, how far below the pre-crisis level is the UK economy?

2. The 40th edition of The Weekly (26th October 2014) highlighted the return to favour of UK regional property investment. LSH's Q3 2014 UKIT report showed that for the first time since Q1 2011, the volume of single asset transactions in the UK regional markets had been greater than that for assets in London. Q3 2014 UK investment volumes reached £16.3bn, with regional investment reaching £10bn. According to LSH’s most recent UKIT report (Q3 2021), £13.5bn of assets changed hands over the last quarter, with two portfolio transactions accounting for just under 20%. Total (single asset) volume across the UK regions totalled £4.4bn, down 20% on Q2 2021 and 25% below Q3 2014 volumes (£5.95bn). Although the South East attracted the largest share of regional investment outside London (£901m) last quarter, which were the only two regions where their Q3 2021 volume was above average?

3. The 100th edition of The Weekly on 17 January 2016 detailed how David and Carol Martin had just won Britain's largest-ever Lotto jackpot of £33m, beating reported odds of 45 million to 1. In fact, apparently, they had significantly better prospects of becoming the next Mother Theresa (at 20 million to 1) than winning the windfall they did. Fast forward nearly six years, and the Martin’s win has been rather dwarfed somewhat by recent British successes on the EuroMillions draw. The biggest lottery prize ever won in the UK was in October 2019 to an anonymous ticket holder. How much did they win? And are they happy?

4. The 200th edition of The Weekly on 7 January 2018 focused on predictions for 2018. At the time, the Investment Property Forum (IPF) UK Consensus Forecast was predicting a total return of 4.0% for 2018, with a 2017-21 five-year average return of 5.40% per annum. Property ended up delivering a total return in 2018 of 6.30%. But what has been the five-year average total return from property (up to 30 September 2021)?

5. The 300th edition of The Weekly on 15 December 2019 reviewed Bull and Bear’s predictions for the year that had just passed. And the truth is, they could have fared better. Much better. They were certainly not helped by their wayward sports predictions. However, they did get two correct, including England's unforgettable Cricket World Cup victory over New Zealand. Continuing the cricketing theme, weather permitting, the 2021-22 Ashes starts in the early hours of Wednesday morning at the Gabba in Brisbane, which has been the first venue of the Ashes series since 1982. The stadium has, historically, been a very happy hunting ground for Australia, with England having a notoriously poor playing record there. Since WW2, how many Test matches have England won at the Gabba?

Answers

  1. 2.1% below.

  2. The North West and the East of England.

  3. £170.2 million...and probably!

  4. 5.30%. Almost bang on the money!

  5. Only 2.